Head of Research at Grayscale Research Zach Pandl issued a report on June 10, 2026, indicating that Bitcoin is currently undervalued based on a suite of on-chain metrics. The analysis, titled “Is Bitcoin Cheap Yet?”, notes that while the asset’s price has fallen roughly 50% from the record highs seen in autumn 2025, current valuation attractiveness is weaker than at previous cyclical bottoms like the post-FTX collapse. As of June 12, 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $63,390, a level multiple analysts describe as an “accumulation zone.”
The correction comes as technical models suggest a significant gap between market price and historical fair value. According to the Bitcoin Power Law model, which uses logarithmic regression, the current “Fair Price” sits at $166,133. This represents a -61.6% deviation from fair value. On-chain analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant recently flagged that Bitcoin fell below the 4% quantile of this model, a range that covers only a fraction of its entire trading history.
The current market structure differs from previous bear cycles. Grayscale Research argues that the emergence of spot ETFs and higher institutional adoption may prevent the extreme price distress seen in earlier years. This suggests that Bitcoin market structure analysis now points toward shallower declines, even as the asset remains significantly below its long-term average.
On-chain metrics flag extreme undervaluation levels
Several indicators suggest Bitcoin is nearing a floor. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stood at 1.1 on June 9, 2026. CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated that this ratio indicates holders are barely above their cost basis. He noted that a further drop into the low $50,000s would likely push the MVRV to 1.0, a level he defines as “full undervaluation.”
These findings align with signals from other composite models. Grayscale Research utilizes indicators such as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Price/CVDD, and Market Cap/Thermo Cap. These collective signals confirm that Bitcoin is “cheap,” though Zach Pandl warns that the final bottom depends on the short-term performance of large leveraged holders.
Political developments in Washington are also influencing investor sentiment. Analysts are monitoring the progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act in the Senate as a primary catalyst for recovery. However, regulatory outlooks remain uncertain, with Galaxy Digital recently lowering the probability of the act’s passage from 75% to 60%.
Long-term accumulation and investor strategy
Despite the retracement from the $126,000 highs of late 2025, long-term sentiment remains focused on entry points. Analyst Alex Mason observed on June 9 that Bitcoin had entered a prime accumulation zone in the $60,000 range. This coincides with a period where Bitcoin supply on exchanges has hit multi-year lows, suggesting a lack of selling pressure from seasoned holders.
Grayscale Research suggests that current price levels offer a strategic window for dollar-cost averaging (DCA). The report assumes a supportive macro backdrop, including potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and a growing economy, which could facilitate a recovery in the coming months.
Shorter-term traders are advised to wait for further clarity on the CLARITY Act and the stability of leveraged balance sheets. While the Power Law model identifies a support price at $58,946, the vast deviation from its $166,133 fair price target suggests that fundamental network value is currently far ahead of market sentiment.