XRP analysts are warning that a long-awaited 2,500-day breakout may be a bull trap as the token continues to test a critical $1.13 support level during Monday’s session. Market observers, including the analyst known as Batman, have identified $1.08 as a vital invalidation floor that could determine whether the recent exit from a seven-year descending trendline remains valid or collapses into a deeper retracement.
The token traded near $1.13 on June 22, 2026, recovering slightly to $1.15 after a brief dip to $1.12 during Sunday’s trading.
Technical analysts eye $1.08 as the make-or-break floor
Despite the intra-day bounce, XRP has remained confined within a stagnant $1.10 to $1.30 price band for much of June, frustrating investors who expected a more volatile expansion following its breakout from levels established back in 2018.
While XRP speculative activity has returned, the asset faces significant technical hurdles before it can resume a broader upward trajectory.
Analyst Batman has highlighted a short-term compression phase where descending resistance and an ascending demand trendline are squeezing the price. According to his analysis, $1.36 serves as the official “breakout threshold,” while a drop below $1.08 would invalidate the current bullish structure. The concern among commentators is that if the $1.13 support fails to hold, the narrative of a multi-year trend shift could evaporate entirely.
Other technical indicators suggest selling pressure might be nearing exhaustion, even as the price struggles to gain momentum. Analyst Ali Martinez recently pointed out that the TD Sequential metric printed a buy signal on the 3-day chart, often an indicator of a potential reversal.
However, Martinez cautioned that XRP must decisively break through $1.45 resistance to safely target the $1.82 level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) touched the oversold barrier of 30 earlier this month, reflecting a sharp month-on-month cooling.
Institutional demand through ETFs provides fundamental support
Despite the precarious price action, institutional adoption metrics indicate a growing floor of support for the ecosystem. Cumulative inflows into XRP-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have now crossed $1.29 billion across six United States-based products. This institutional interest is paired with steady network health, as XRP Ledger transaction volume transitioned back above the 1 million daily transaction threshold this month.
Ripple has also continued to expand its utility through a strategic partnership with the Latin American exchange Bitso. The collaboration aims to support the issuance of a regulated Mexican peso stablecoin, known as MXNB, on the XRP Ledger.
While the market monitors bitcoin price resistance for broader sentiment cues, these native developments suggest that the XRP network is maintaining its fundamental relevance regardless of immediate price fluctuations.
Whale activity cools as supply leaves exchanges
On-chain data reveals a notable shift in high-value participant behavior, with whale activity seeing a sharp decline. Transactions exceeding $1 million dropped by 57.3% over a nine-day window, falling from 157 to 67. This reduction in large-scale movements often suggests a period of wait-and-see among major holders as they gauge whether the $1.13 level will withstand further tests.
However, long-term supply dynamics remain a buoy for the bullish case. Since the beginning of 2025, approximately 7 billion XRP tokens have been moved off centralized exchanges, reducing the available liquid supply by 16%.
Similar trends have been observed in other major assets where bitcoin exchange supply has remained at multi-year lows, indicating that large investors may be moving assets into long-term storage rather than preparing for an immediate liquidation event.
Price targets and long-term market outlook
Many analysts remain optimistic that the current consolidation is a healthy retest rather than a “bull trap.” Analyst Javon Marks has maintained a long-term “measured move” target near $17, citing historical patterns where the asset saw exponential growth following extended periods of sideways trading.
Other commentators, such as EGRAG CRYPTO, have suggested a more aggressive 1,250% surge as a possibility if historical ribbon patterns repeat, potentially pushing the token toward $13.
For the immediate future, success depends on the defense of the $1.10—$1.13 support zone. If buyers can maintain this level, the next targets for XRP lie at $1.35 and $1.50.
Conversely, a breakdown below $1.10 would likely send the token toward the $1.09 and $1.04 zones, essentially trapping those who bought the initial breakout in May. With NASDAQ scheduled to see the launch of 3x long and short XRP ETFs by GraniteShares, the market is bracing for heightened volatility in the coming weeks.