Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes the crypto spot market is on the verge of its next crypto bull market. Speaking on CNBC from Washington on Thursday, August 20, Armstrong laid out a case built on historical cycle timing, upcoming regulatory progress, and a recent shift in market momentum that sent Bitcoin soaring.
His prediction comes after a sharp market reversal that saw Bitcoin gain roughly 22% since August 19, trading near $78,700 by Saturday. This surge followed favorable macroeconomic signals and discussions from President Donald Trump regarding a potential government Bitcoin purchase, fueling a dramatic change in market sentiment.
Armstrong builds a case for the crypto bull market on historical cycles and regulation
The core of Armstrong’s argument rests on the calendar. He noted that crypto has been in a bear market for about a year, and previous downturns have consistently lasted between 370 and 380 days. This historical pattern suggests the current corrective phase is nearing its end.
“We’re basically coming right up against that where people, you know, they’re going to say, well, this one’s about over,” Armstrong stated in the interview. “It’s time for the next bull run in crypto.” This perspective frames the recent downturn not as a failure, but as a predictable part of a larger market cycle.
Adding to the cyclical argument is a major legislative catalyst: a planned September 15 Senate vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633). While only a procedural vote, Armstrong is “pretty optimistic” it will clear the 60-vote threshold, signaling strong bipartisan support for clearer rules. He sees the upcoming CLARITY Act vote as a major catalyst for the industry.
Finally, Armstrong pointed to seasonal trends tied to Bitcoin’s code. He described October, November, and December as historically strong months for Bitcoin in years following a halving event. The most recent halving, which cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, occurred in April 2024, setting the stage for this potential end-of-year strength.
Recent market reversal sparks bullish sentiment
Armstrong’s comments landed in a market already buzzing with renewed optimism. The mood shifted dramatically on August 19, when the U.S. Treasury announced it would double its bond buyback operations to at least $4 billion each. It also increased the frequency from two to four per quarter, with the plan starting September 9.
This move, designed to add liquidity to the financial system, sent government bond yields lower. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 5.7 basis points to 4.647%, while the 30-year yield dropped 9 basis points to 5.196%. Lower yields on traditional safe-haven assets often make riskier assets like cryptocurrency more attractive to investors.
The same day, President Donald Trump’s involvement added another layer of intrigue. He suggested that a sizable government purchase of Bitcoin had been discussed, providing a powerful signal to traders. According to data from SoSoValue, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a massive $517 million in net inflows on August 19 alone.
This rapid change is perfectly captured by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. As recently as August 13, the index registered a score of 29, indicating widespread fear. By press time, it had flipped to 71, a clear signal of “Greed” dominating market sentiment.
Prediction follows a tough summer for crypto trading volumes
The newfound bullishness stands in stark contrast to the market conditions of just a few weeks prior. July was a particularly difficult month for exchanges, with trading activity falling to multi-month lows. Data from Wu Blockchain revealed that spot turnover across 14 major centralized exchanges plunged 21.7% in July, falling to $429.0 billion from $547.9 billion in June.
No major venue was spared, with every one of the 14 tracked exchanges posting a monthly decline in volume. Binance, the market leader, saw its volume sink to $196.5 billion, though it still accounted for 45.8% of the total. Coinbase itself recorded a 26.4% drop in spot volume, the second-steepest fall among major platforms after Bitfinex, which saw a 59.7% collapse in activity.
The derivatives market also cooled, with volume falling 11.1% to $3.03 trillion. However, the futures-to-spot volume ratio climbed from 6.21x to 7.06x. This indicates that while overall activity was down, traders who remained active were leaning more heavily on leverage, perhaps positioning for the volatility that ultimately arrived in late August.
What a bull market means for Coinbase
For Armstrong and Coinbase, a renewed bull market would be a significant financial boon. According to the company’s own disclosures, Bitcoin spot trading now accounts for approximately 12% of its total revenue. A sustained period of higher prices and increased trading volume would directly translate to a stronger bottom line for the publicly traded exchange.
The CEO’s bullish short-term call aligns with his long-term vision. Armstrong’s long-term forecast for Bitcoin suggests it could reach between $300,000 and $400,000 by 2030, framing the current price levels as an early stage in a much larger adoption curve. His optimism is a key part of his public-facing role, intended to inspire confidence among both retail and institutional investors in the crypto space.
Armstrong is betting that the combination of predictable historical cycles, concrete regulatory progress in Washington, and a favorable macroeconomic tailwind is enough to overcome recent market apathy. If his analysis holds, the past week’s rally could indeed be the start of crypto’s next major bull run.