Prominent chartist Aksel Kibar warned on May 24, 2026, that the Bitcoin price could fall to approximately $72,500 before its next sustainable rebound. Following a recent swing high of $82,500, the digital asset has entered a retracement phase that technical analysts suggest may test the lower boundary of a long-standing ascending channel. On the day of the report, Bitcoin was consolidating between $76,000 and $77,000 after experiencing a sharp bounce from an order block located in the $75,000 to $76,000 range.
The market has faced bearish pressure in recent sessions after failing to sustain momentum above the $80,000 to $82,000 resistance region. While buyers were attempting to defend the $75,000 support zone, the technical structure of the ascending channel indicates that a move toward $72,500 is the most likely path for the current retracement. This level represents the channel’s lower trendline, which traditionally acts as a significant floor for price action.
Should the $72,500 support level hold strong, Bitcoin could potentially bounce back toward the upper boundary of the channel. Analysts are looking at a resistance region just above $86,000, where the 365-day moving average and the upper boundary line might converge. Despite this Bitcoin price analysis and the potential for a recovery, Kibar noted he would only consider entering a long position above the 365-day moving average, which he identifies as a major indicator of a bull market start.
Daily technical levels and potential downside targets
The multi-month ascending channel has dictated much of Bitcoin’s recent trajectory, with the upper boundary serving as resistance and the lower trendline providing support. However, if Bitcoin loses the critical $72,500 support, it could trigger a new wave of bearish pressure across the market. In such a scenario, Kibar believes the price could fall as low as $60,000, where a short-term reversal might eventually form.
Other traders have highlighted different narrow windows for support. The trader known as Jelle warned of a “Bart Simpson” reversal pattern, flagging $70,500 as a key level to hold to avoid retracting all earlier gains. If this support fail, other analysts identified the $70,000 to $71,000 region as the next major daily demand zone. A deeper breakdown could expose the $65,000 to $66,000 area, though substantial liquidity clusters also exist further down in the $60,000 to $63,000 region.
Meanwhile, the trader CrypNuevo suggested that there is “little reason to act at current levels,” advising market participants to wait for the price to trade at one of these technical extremes. This cautious stance aligns with high-level investor sentiment shifts as the market waits to see if the current structural support remains intact or if a deeper correction is imminent.
Geopolitical factors and broad market forecasts for 2026
While technical patterns provide a map, geopolitical developments remain a volatile influence on price action. In a notable precedent on April 13, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded to $72,530 after markets learned that a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would spare non-Iranian shipping traffic. More recently, prices regained some life following news of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran, suggesting that Middle Eastern tensions remain a primary driver of sudden market movements.
Despite the current pressure, long-term projections for 2026 remain varied. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has projected that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of the year, pointing toward improved U.S. regulatory clarity. This optimistic view stands in contrast to algorithmic price prediction models for 2026, which suggest a potential trading range between $40,462 and $118,296. Some firms, such as ZX Squared Capital, have even suggested that Bitcoin entered a bear market as early as March, warning of a potential 30% decline for the year.
Institutional trends may provide a necessary counterweight to this bearish outlook. Reports from the first quarter of 2026 indicate that Italy’s largest bank has increased exposure to Bitcoin through ETF products, with total exposure exceeding $200 million. Whether this institutional demand can bolster the $72,500 floor remains the central question for traders as the current weekly candle develops.