Chief Business Officer at Deribit Jean-David Péquignot issued a stark warning on June 5, 2026, stating that Bitcoin is “fast approaching the critical $60,000 mark,” a level that could trigger a massive, automated selloff. The digital asset is currently trading around $60,445.40 on KuCoin, having extended its weekly losses to 13%.
This recent volatility has left the cryptocurrency down approximately 29% year-to-date as of June 5, 2026. Experts believe breaching this psychological floor risks a chaotic downward spiral driven by institutional hedging and forced liquidations.
The market’s proximity to this 60,000 threshold is dangerous because a large wave of institutional money entered the market between $60,000 and $67,000 over the past year. This cohort includes spot ETF buyers and short-term speculators who would face heavy paper losses if the price fails to hold.
This selling pressure comes even as the Bitcoin supply on exchanges remains at notable lows, suggesting a disconnect between long-term holder behavior and immediate price action.
Derivative markets are adding to the tension as Jean-David Péquignot confirmed that Deribit holds over $1.2 billion in open interest for $60,000 strike put options. As Bitcoin approaches this price, market makers who sold these options will be forced to aggressively sell spot Bitcoin or futures to balance their books.
This mechanical rebalancing, combined with heavily leveraged long positions, could ignite a cascading wave of automated liquidations if collateral metrics are breached.
Institutional perspectives on the 2026 market turbulence
While the immediate data looks bearish, some industry leaders remain focused on the long-term horizon. On June 2, 2026, Chairman of Bitmine (formerly Fundstrat) Tom Lee acknowledged that “crypto’s been disappointing” and noted that people are selling as if something is fundamentally wrong.
He characterized some of the current market exits as “rage quitting” by frustrated investors, though he maintained that the long-term thesis for Bitcoin remains strong.
The financial toll on major bulls has been substantial during this period. On June 4, 2026, reports suggested that Tom Lee was holding an unrealized loss of -$8,945,000,000. Despite these figures, Lee attributed the 2026 crash to U.S.-led leverage and sentiment shocks rather than broken fundamentals. This high-stakes volatility explains com/why-bitcoin-traders-care-200-day-moving-average-analysis/”>why Bitcoin traders prioritise the 200-day moving average as they search for a definitive trend reversal.
Artificial intelligence and prediction markets forecast further downside
Quantitative forecasts align with these concerns. On June 2, 2026, the Finbold AI Agent predicted that Bitcoin could drop by an average of 7.41% over the coming weeks, potentially hitting $62,678 by June 30. Specific models were even more aggressive; Grok 4.1 forecast a 9.54% drop.
These models cite contracting demand for spot and perpetual futures, which is currently shrinking at a monthly pace of 232,000 BTC.
Traders on decentralized platforms are betting heavily against a quick recovery. As of June 4, 2024, Polymarket prices indicated a 62% probability of Bitcoin hitting $60,000 or lower in June. Furthermore, Kalshi contracts show an 83% chance that Bitcoin will reach the $60,000 level before it reaches $100,000 by year-end.
These figures suggest that the “bad news” mentioned by experts may not yet be fully priced in.
On-chain data reveals that about $336 million in long liquidation leverage is clustered at $57,446. This level sits just above the realized price of $53,796, which represents the average cost basis of all coins and has historically acted as a floor.
While some analysts identify the $50,000 zone as the next support, others look much further back for context. For instance, on December 22, 2025, analyst Ali Martinez predicted a possible market bottom around $37,500 in the last quarter of 2026 based on historical cycles.