Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, has observed that Bitcoin is currently flashing price behavior characteristic of an “early bull market.” In a recent market update, Timmer noted that while the digital asset faces strong resistance, buyers have remained firm, refusing to yield ground despite challenging technical levels. This resilience, according to Timmer, mimics how historical upturns have begun, as the asset “works off” its condition with little to no price damage.
Fidelity internal data from the Q2 2026 Signals Report supports this observation, noting that the broader market entered the second quarter in a “consolidation mode.” However, analysts led by Daniel Gray highlighted underlying signals of stabilization. Key metrics including network usage and unrealized profitability suggest that structural conditions are evolving in ways that may not yet be reflected in the current price. At the time of the April report, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,000.
The resilience of the market is increasingly anchored by the “market’s primary source of resilience,” which remains Bitcoin. While other protocols have seen network activity diverge from price, Bitcoin has maintained a steady role as a safety net. This shift has become more pronounced as Bitcoin price analysis shows the asset outperforming traditional assets like gold, which Timmer remarked has been “lackluster” following its previous strong run.
Institutional adoption and the rise of ancient supply
A significant factor in the current market structure is the movement of coins into long-term holdings. Fidelity Digital Assets research indicates that the daily increase in “ancient supply”—defined as Bitcoin that has not moved for 10 years or more—began outpacing daily issuance in April 2024. Currently, approximately 566 Bitcoin fall into this long-term bucket daily, while the issuance rate remains at 450 Bitcoin per day as of June 2025.
This trend is supplemented by a steady decrease in exchange liquidity. During the first quarter of 2024, Fidelity reported a 4% reduction in Bitcoin held on exchanges. This shift toward self-custody or long-term institutional storage aligns with a Bitcoin exchange supply that continues to trend toward multi-year lows, effectively reducing the liquid supply available for trade in the open market.
The influence of public companies is also growing as they integrate the asset into corporate treasuries. As of June 8, 2025, a total of 27 public companies held more than 800,000 Bitcoin. Fidelity projections suggest that if current adoption rates persist, these institutional holdings and ancient supply could account for roughly 30% of the total Bitcoin supply by the year 2035, providing a durable floor for market valuation.
Market dominance and the post-halving recovery
Bitcoin’s role as the dominant market force has reached levels not seen in nearly a decade. On May 11, 2025, Bitcoin’s market dominance, excluding stablecoins, climbed to 72.4%. This represented an eight-year high, surpassing levels recorded in March 2017. This flight to quality occurred even as Ethereum recovery outlooks were tested by shifting institutional outflows and network technical breakdowns.
This dominance grew significantly following the fourth halving event. After the halving on April 19, 2024, where the price sat at $63,762, the asset saw a 31% increase to reach $83,671 by April 15, 2025. Although these returns were described as “more measured” than in previous cycles, the absolute growth and the subsequent move back above the $100,000 mark after May 2025 signaled a deepening “decoupling moment” for the crypto king.
The correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity remains a primary driver for long-term sentiment. Fidelity research identified an r-squared correlation of 0.87 between the increase in broad global money supplies (M2) and Bitcoin’s price over the last 15 years. As a fixed-supply digital bearer asset, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed by analysts as a hedge against monetary inflation, similar to “gold on steroids.”
Signals point to a market in repair phase
Despite the positive “early bull market” signals identified by Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity analysts clarify that the market is still technically in a “repair” phase. This means that while profitability and momentum indicators are consistent with a corrective period, they are ultimately laying the groundwork for a more stable market. These signals are often precursors to a sustained move higher, as extreme indicators typically seen at market peaks are currently absent.
For investors, Fidelity suggests that even small allocations can have a notable impact on long-term performance. An allocation of 2% to 5% toward Bitcoin could potentially improve annual retirement spending by as much as 4% in optimistic adoption scenarios. This is supported by the asset’s growing role as a network good and its scarcity relative to expanding sovereign debt levels globally.
As the market navigates the remainder of 2026, the focus remains on whether structural network activity will begin to reflect more prominently in the spot price. For now, the combination of rising “ancient supply,” increasing market dominance, and the leadership of Bitcoin over gold suggests that the foundation of this bull market is more stabilized than previous cycles at similar stages.