CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn has projected that Bitcoin may be approximately two months away from reaching a cycle bottom, citing historical patterns within the asset’s four-year halving cycle. This forecast, as of May 23, 2026, notes that market bottoms typically begin to form around the 777th day following a halving event. If this established rhythm holds true for the current cycle, a definitive floor could materialize in late May 2026.
The timing is becoming a focal point for traders and long-term holders alike. Research indicates that as of March 24, 2026, 703 days had passed since the last Bitcoin halving. While some investors remain cautious about volatility, Bitcoin price analysis shows that recent rejections at key resistance levels, specifically near $82,400, have mirrored historical bear-market rallies. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, noted similarities between this rejection and the price action observed in March 2022.
Despite the technical headwinds, there are signs of strong accumulation. Nearly 31,900 BTC, valued at approximately $3 billion, were withdrawn from exchanges in a single day this week. Such heavy Bitcoin exchange supply outflows generally suggest that major players are moving assets into cold storage. Additionally, long-term holders are currently accumulating at their fastest pace since July 2025.
On-chain indicators highlight potential July bottom
Alternative on-chain metrics shared by analyst CryptoChan on May 22, 2026, suggest a slightly different timeline, pointing toward a definitive bottom window opening in mid-to-late July. This model tracks the ratio between two realized price bands representing long-term holders and the broader market average. Historically, a bottom is confirmed when this ratio drops below 0.936 and begins its recovery toward 1.0.
The ratio currently sits at the 0.936 threshold. Past cycles show varying recovery times for this metric to return to the 1.0 level: 59 days during the 2015 bear market and 66 days in the 2018–2019 period. While these durations describe the time needed for the ratio to recover, they illustrate the window in which previous cycles have historically established their floors.
Pressure is also evident among short-term holders, who recently sent more than 27,000 BTC in profit to exchanges at a realized price of nearly $68,000. This movement is often interpreted as a capitulation phase. Meanwhile, the Mayer Multiple Z-Score has dropped to -1.5 standard deviations, a level previously seen during the major market lows of March 2020 and late 2022.
Diverging perspectives on the 2026 ultimate low
Expert opinions remain split on whether the bottom is imminent or if further pain is required. Analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that the most likely outcome for a cycle low is Q4 2026, potentially in October. Cowen observed that while February 2026 saw a significant drop, midterm years in the Bitcoin cycle often reach their ultimate lows later in the year than initially expected.
A more aggressive bearish projection comes from the TRIX indicator used by analyst CryptoCon. This metric, which follows a descending trendline on the monthly chart, suggests Bitcoin could potentially bottom near the $30,000 mark. The indicator previously flagged exact bottoms at $166 in January 2015, $3,125 in December 2018, and $15,500 in November 2022.
However, Mark Yusko, CEO and founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management, argues the absolute bottom has already occurred. He specified a $63,000 print and a $59,000 intraday touch as the cycle’s floor. Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, shares a similar base case, suggesting that the drop toward $60,000 in February marked the cycle’s maximum drawdown.
Miner revenues and reserves remains under pressure
A major factor preventing a confirmed bottom is the continued stress within the mining sector. A CryptoQuant report on May 22, 2026, indicates that miners do not yet believe the market has stabilized. The Binance Pool Miner Reserve has declined, which suggests miners are supplying BTC to the market to sustain operations rather than anticipating an immediate price surge.
The Puell Multiple remains below 1, confirming that miner revenues are still under pressure. Furthermore, the Miners’ Position Index stays in negative territory, implying that sales are driven by necessity. This lack of miner confidence is often a hurdle in establishing a “confirmed” bottom according to analysts like CryptoCon, who notes transaction volume strength is still compressing toward the low-volume zone typical of bear market ends.
With funding rates remaining negative for 81 consecutive days and the MVRV Z-Score yet to signal a full cycle floor, the market remains in a state of high uncertainty. While some look toward the CLARITY Act legislative progress as a potential catalyst for broader crypto sentiment, Bitcoin’s near-term path appears tied to these conflicting on-chain signals. For now, the hunt for a confirmed cycle bottom continues as analysts watch for these diverging indicators to align.
