A critical Bitcoin momentum signal is nearing the 0.5 threshold, a level that preceded the major October 2025 crash and February 2026 sell-off. Analysis here.
A Bitcoin momentum indicator provided by Glassnode is nearing a critical 0.5 threshold, a technical level that has historically preceded heavy market corrections. As of May 23, 2026, the indicator sits at approximately 0.7, down from its 0.9 reading in mid-May. Analytics firms including Bitcoin Vector suggest that the current slide indicates upward momentum is fading, potentially allowing sellers to gain the upper hand in the coming weeks.
With Bitcoin trading at roughly $75,950 — a 2% decline over the last 24 hours — the market is closely watching if the asset can hold its current ground. Analysts warn that a sustained drop below the 0.5 level would signal a shift in market character from bullish to bearish. This technical concern is compounded by weakening spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which points to a lack of buying pressure.
Historical significance of the 0.5 momentum threshold
The current technical setup mirrors two recent periods of intense volatility where the 0.5 threshold was breached. In October 2025, the indicator fell below this mark just before a major collapse. Bitcoin had hit an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025, but the market outlook soured quickly. On October 10, 2025, a flash crash wiped $370 billion off the total crypto market capitalization in hours, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports.
The broader market crash followed on October 11, 2025. By November 21, 2025, the asset was trading at $84,000, representing a 33% loss from the October peak. A similar pattern emerged in February 2026, when the momentum indicator again dipped below 0.5. During that slide, Bitcoin fell to approximately $62,000. This period saw a massive deleveraging event that liquidated $2.58 billion in trader positions in a single day, shortly after Bitcoin price analysis showed the asset losing its $80,500 True Market Mean support.
Analyst targets and potential downside support levels
If the momentum signal continues to fade, several analysts have identified specific price targets for a potential correction. Analyst Merlijn suggested on May 21 that Bitcoin could retreat to a range between $45,000 and $59,000. Galaxy Digital analysts offered a similar warning, noting that a failure of current support levels could cause prices to plummet toward $56,000.
Expert traders are quantifying these risks with specific probabilities. 10X Research and analyst Peter Brandt have calculated a 25% probability that Bitcoin prices reach the $55,000 to $57,000 range under worst-case scenarios. These bearish projections are gaining traction as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of weakening, implying that the asset’s ability to maintain higher price floors is diminishing.
The current pressure follows a broader trend of macro warning signs that have hit the sector throughout 2026. For example, on March 23, 2026, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram crossed below zero for the third time in this cycle, signaling a sustained shift in bearish momentum since the price topped out in late 2025.
Forward-looking fractal models and cycle bottoms
Technical models suggest the current volatility may be part of a larger cyclical rhythm. A fractal model shared by Crypto Rover predicts that Bitcoin will reach its lowest price of 2026 during the current cycle if historical patterns repeat, following the peak of $126,000 seen in October 2025. This long-term outlook focuses on the timing of market bottoms rather than immediate price action.
Further analysis from TradingShot, shared on May 15, notes that Bitcoin has completed 760 days since the April 2024 halving. Historically, this timeframe aligns with major market downturns. According to this Fibonacci-based analysis, the next major cycle bottom may not arrive until around October 2026.
Despite the prevailing bearish indicators, some investors point to bitcoin exchange supply remaining at multi-year lows as a possible buffer against a total collapse. However, analysts at Bitcoin Vector maintain that if the 0.5 momentum threshold is lost while spot buying remains as weak as it is currently, the market will likely enter a full downtrend. Traders are now monitoring the 0.7 level to see if a rebound can occur before the shift in market character becomes permanent.
By Michael Fawn