Juan Leon, Senior Investment Strategist at Bitwise, stated on July 9, 2026, that Bitcoin’s downside support is strengthening, creating a rising price floor despite intense competition from the artificial intelligence sector. This maturation occurs as institutional investors increasingly view market pullbacks as opportunities rather than threats.
Leon noted that while previous cycles were dominated by retail speculators, the current market is anchored by professional allocators who treat downturns as a strategic “gift” for accumulation.
Institutional behavior supports a rising bitcoin floor
The shift in holder demographics has made the current decline the “mildest structural bear market” in the asset’s history. While the market has seen a 50% drawdown in this cycle, it remains far less severe than the 78% plunge in 2022 or the 84% drop recorded in 2018.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently echoed this sentiment, suggesting the industry is nearing the end of its current bear cycle as deleveraging events conclude. And while Bitcoin price analysis often focuses on short-term volatility, the transition to institutional “diamond hands” suggests a higher baseline for future price action.
The concept of a rising floor is fueled by a fundamental change in who is holding the asset. According to Juan Leon, the marginal holder is no longer a retail speculator but a professional portfolio manager.
In 2022, clients were questioning if the industry would survive at all; in 2026, the conversation has moved toward sophisticated discussions regarding position sizing and entry points. This change reflects a level of market maturity that historically signals the start of a more stable growth phase.
Data from the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) underscores this resilience. On July 8, 2026, the fund traded one million shares, totaling approximately $39.47 million. Although the price fell 2.48% that day to $33.77, it remained above its 52-week low of $31.49. Some investors are actively using these fluctuations to dollar-cost average.
This behavior contrasts with past cycles where price drops often led to widespread panic-selling among smaller retail participants.
But the market remains split into two distinct camps. While established institutional holders are buying the dip, other large pools of capital are waiting for federal legislative movement. Specifically, the stalled passage of the Clarity Act in Congress is acting as a bottleneck.
Leon argued that this legislation would provide the “permission structure” needed for trillions of dollars in fresh institutional capital to enter the market. He does not expect the act to clear Congress before the August recess.
AI infrastructure boom competes for institutional capital
One of the primary challenges to immediate crypto growth is the massive spending boom in artificial intelligence. Hyperscale companies are projected to spend over $1 trillion on AI infrastructure throughout 2025 and 2026.
This has created a temporary diversion of funds, with memory-chip ETFs attracting $12 billion in inflows since April, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $4 billion in outflows in the same period. Leon views this as a cyclical rotation rather than a rejection of crypto fundamentals.
The relationship between the two sectors is also becoming more complementary. Many Bitcoin miners are already expanding into AI and high-performance computing to maximize their data center utility. Furthermore, the rise of “agentic AI”—autonomous systems capable of making decisions—is expected to rely on Clarity Act analysis and stablecoin rails for machine-to-machine payments.
As valuations for AI stocks compress, Bitwise expects allocators to return to crypto assets trading at a discount.
Market indicators signal a potential cycle bottom
Several technical signs suggest the market may be finding its base. Momentum readings show the asset is in oversold territory, and roughly half of all Bitcoin supply is currently held “underwater,” with prices sitting below the owners’ initial purchase levels. Historically, such widespread holder distress is a classic indicator of a market bottom.
Bitwise reports that long-term holders have already begun renewed accumulation despite the broader market uncertainty.
The broader macro warning signs, such as persistent inflation, continue to impact risk appetite. High interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve have kept the market cautious.
However, Bitwise leadership points to the expansion of stablecoins, which reached a $322 billion market cap by mid-June 2026, as evidence that the underlying blockchain infrastructure is growing. This utility-driven growth provides a secondary support layer that was largely absent during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
Looking toward the future, Bitwise projections remain optimistic. The average price target for the BITB ETF over the next 30 days is $81.42, which would be a significant recovery from its current levels. By 2028, the firm anticipates an average price of $121.83.
For now, the “institutional tug of war” continues, but the rising floor suggests that Bitcoin has successfully transitioned from an existential risk to a maturing staple of professional portfolios.