Gemini has had a rough ride on the public market. The crypto platform’s stock has fallen roughly 80% since its debut, shrinking its market value to about $753 million and reviving a question that had started to fade: could Gemini become an acquisition target?
The company, founded by billionaire twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is now attracting attention for reasons that extend beyond its shrinking trading business. For a potential buyer, Gemini could offer something harder to build from scratch: U.S. regulatory approvals, custody infrastructure and an established customer base.
That possibility surfaced again after Lorenzo Valente, director of digital assets research at ARK Invest, suggested on X that Hyperliquid should acquire Gemini and use it as a regulated U.S. entry point for perpetual futures and prediction markets.
There is no indication that Hyperliquid is actually pursuing the deal. Still, the idea points to a broader shift in how crypto companies can be valued when trading activity is no longer the whole story.
Why Gemini’s value may be hiding in plain sight
The numbers show why the acquisition question is back.
Gemini’s market capitalization is now around $753 million, compared with roughly $4 billion at its peak. In the second quarter, exchange revenue dropped 38% year over year to $12.5 million, while spot trading volume fell 66% to $3.8 billion.
Assets held on the platform also declined sharply, reaching $8.4 billion versus $18.2 billion previously.
For an exchange, those figures make the core business look considerably smaller than it once did. A venture capital investor cited by CoinDesk also argued that Gemini’s underlying exchange technology offers limited differentiation from competitors.
But technology is only one piece of the puzzle.
Gemini’s subsidiaries still hold regulatory licenses and approvals that could take significant time, legal work and money for another company to obtain independently. That makes the platform potentially interesting even if its trading volumes are no longer the main attraction.
The calculation for a buyer becomes less about acquiring volume and more about acquiring access.
That logic is already appearing elsewhere in crypto M&A. Digital-asset services firm Keyrock bought BlockFills’ trading assets in July, adding regulatory licenses, derivatives expertise and institutional clients. Tokenization company Ondo has also been exploring a transaction valued at up to $500 million.
LMAX and B2C2 have likewise explored strategic transactions as companies look to expand through acquisitions rather than build every capability internally.
Gemini fits into that pattern neatly.
CoinDesk reported in April that prospective buyers were considering Gemini’s shuttered European and U.K. operations primarily for their regulatory licenses. No deal has emerged, with valuation reportedly among the issues dividing the sides, according to the investor, who spoke anonymously because the matter is private.
Gemini declined to comment.
The Winklevoss factor makes Gemini different
There is another complication, and it has little to do with trading volumes.
The Winklevoss twins effectively control 94.5% of Gemini’s voting power. That concentration could make negotiations more straightforward because any serious transaction would ultimately come down to two decision-makers.
At the same time, it creates a formidable barrier to any unwanted sale.
Because the brothers hold so much voting power, a hostile takeover or shareholder-led attempt to force a transaction would be virtually impossible without their approval.
That leaves a prospective buyer facing a very specific question. The issue is not simply whether Gemini’s current valuation makes its infrastructure attractive enough to purchase. It is whether the company’s most powerful shareholders would actually want to sell.
For now, there is no evidence of an active takeover involving Gemini. What has changed is the way the company’s falling valuation has reframed the conversation.
At around $753 million, the market is placing a much smaller price on Gemini than it did at its peak. For an acquirer, that could create an opportunity to obtain regulatory infrastructure, custody capabilities and customer relationships without building each piece independently.
The catch is that Gemini is not just an asset sitting on a spreadsheet. Its ownership structure means any deal still depends heavily on the Winklevoss twins.
And that may be the most important number in the entire story: 94.5%.