Altcoins are starting to look healthier again, but the Altcoin Season Index is warning that the comeback is far from broad.
On Binance, 70% of altcoins have climbed back above their 200-day moving averages, a level last seen in October 2025. Total3, which tracks the combined market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has also pushed back above $800 billion.
Then there is the awkward part. Blockchaincenter’s Altcoin Season Index slipped to 41 on September 20, leaving it 34 points below the historical threshold used to confirm an altcoin season.
The result is a market sending two very different signals at once.
The Altcoin Season Index Is Asking a Different Question
The broader altcoin market has clearly recovered some ground. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization is up 3.7% in September, while several altcoins have posted sharp gains despite macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Total3 moved above $800 billion for the first time in more than eight months. The move also cleared May’s high after a strong daily close.
Binance data adds another layer to the picture. Seventy percent of altcoins were trading above their 200-day averages, after spending nearly a year between 65% and 85% below that benchmark.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, has remained inside a relatively narrow range of roughly $75,600 to $82,000. Ash Crypto also pointed to a potentially bullish setup on a chart that excludes the top 10 assets.
On the surface, it looks like altcoins are waking up. But recovery in dollar terms is not the same thing as beating Bitcoin.
That distinction explains why the Altcoin Season Index has moved in the opposite direction.
The index measures how many of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the previous 90 days. At 41, fewer than half have managed to do that.
The figure had climbed as high as 67 in August before falling back, showing that relative performance has weakened even while individual altcoins have recovered.
Bitcoin’s dominance tells a similar story. It stood at 59.34% on September 20, up 0.5% over the previous three days.
So the market can improve without producing a broad rotation out of Bitcoin. Altcoins can rise alongside the market while still losing ground to BTC on a relative basis.
That is the tension sitting underneath the latest rally.
One Bitcoin Pair Is Hinting at a Possible Shift
There is, however, one signal suggesting the balance could be changing.
The ETH/BTC ratio was around 0.03238 and had recently tested a downtrend that has been in place since 2021, according to Ash Crypto.
That matters because ETH/BTC compares Ethereum directly with Bitcoin rather than measuring either asset against the dollar. A move higher can therefore point to changing relative strength between the two largest assets.
But the signal is still fresh. The ratio remains well below its 2021 peak, making it an early indication rather than evidence of a market-wide altcoin rotation.
The broader picture remains fragile.
Darkfost warned that improving market structure can reverse quickly. “But be careful, this kind of development can shift quickly, so caution remains warranted,” the analyst said.
For the Altcoin Season Index to confirm a broader shift, altcoins would need to keep outperforming Bitcoin across its 90-day measurement window.
For now, the numbers describe something more complicated: altcoins are recovering, but Bitcoin still sets the reference point for measuring whether that recovery has become a genuine rotation.