Bitcoin failed to clear a critical technical hurdle on May 25, 2026, as price action encountered heavy selling pressure at the 200-day moving average (MA). Leading analysts, including Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant, warned that the inability to break this resistance indicates the bear market is structurally ongoing. The rejection at $82,400 has already forced a retreat toward $76,000, leaving market participants wary of a potential crash if support floors fail to hold.
The current rejection mirrors a specific historical precedent from early April 2022. During that cycle, Bitcoin attempted to breach its 200-day MA around $48,000 but failed to maintain the level, leading to a prolonged price decline. In the current May 2026 cycle, it took Bitcoin 189 days to revisit the 200-day MA after breaking below it. This is a notably slower recovery timeline compared to previous cycles in 2014 (96 days), 2018 (132 days), and 2022 (85 days).
The $76,000 level has emerged as a significant pivot point, having acted as both support and resistance throughout 2024. For major institutional holders and corporate entities, this price represents their average acquisition cost. Expert Bitcoin price analysis shows that this level has been tested three times in recent months, with each attempt meeting substantial selling pressure that prevented a breakout.
Large holder activity and exchange inflow trends near resistance
On-chain data suggests that large-scale holders may be preparing to liquidate positions as Bitcoin approaches key resistance zones. On April 17, 2026, hourly Bitcoin inflows to exchanges climbed to roughly 11,000 BTC, marking the highest level since late December. Historically, such spikes in exchange deposits coincide with increased selling pressure as assets move out of private storage.
The size of these deposits provides further insight into current market participation. The average Bitcoin deposit to exchanges recently rose to 2.25 BTC, the highest daily level since July 2024. This trend was driven by sizable transfers to Binance, including individual deposits exceeding 1,000 BTC. These large-scale movements indicate significant activity from “whales” rather than small retail investors.
External economic factors are also impacting the digital asset market. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth has accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, contributing to a cautious atmosphere. This macroeconomic outlook has likely influenced domestic institutional demand, as represented by the Coinbase Premium turning negative—a signal often associated with bearish price movement.
Bull score index falls to extreme bearish levels
Internal network health metrics have dropped to levels not seen since the depth of previous market corrections. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, noted that the Bull Score Index recently slid from 40 back to 20. This shift places Bitcoin in “extreme bearish territory,” a level matching conditions seen in February and March when prices declined to the $60,000 range.
Technical resistance remains clustered between $76,857 and $80,000. Within this corridor, market data from major exchanges reveals significant sell orders, with some individual blocks exceeding 100 BTC. Traders are also monitoring fading demand signals from the ETF sector, where spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently transitioned to net outflows after a period of activity.
The futures market reflects this cautious sentiment as well. Funding rates for Bitcoin contracts have now stayed negative for 81 consecutive days. When funding rates remain negative for extended periods, it suggests that short-sellers are willing to pay a premium to maintain their bearish bets, further illustrating the lack of upward momentum in the current cycle.
The psychological weight of the 76,000 support floor
Approximately 43% of all Bitcoin addresses are currently in an “unrealized loss,” holding coins purchased at higher prices. If the price sustains a breakdown beneath $76,000—which also represents the previous all-time high from the 2024 cycle—it could trigger broader selling. Analyst Merlijn The Trader believes the price action looks uncomfortably close to a crash under this level if nearby supports fail.
The potential for profit-taking also looms over the market. If Bitcoin were to break above current levels, growing unrealized gains could accelerate profit-taking, potentially reaching the $1 billion level. However, the rejection at $82,400 has prioritized the downward risk, with Bitcoin already pulling back as low as $74,000 during the most recent weekend.
Current analysis indicates that demand signals are weakening across the board. Futures market activity has slowed, and the negative Coinbase Premium suggests that U.S. demand is not keeping pace with selling pressure. Investors are now watching to see if Bitcoin can stabilize or if the rejection at the 200-day MA confirms a deeper structural decline toward the $60,000 lows seen earlier this year.