Multiple technical analysts who correctly identified recent market shifts are warning that the Bitcoin price could reach $40,000 as bearish momentum builds. High-profile traders, including Doctor Profit and Tony, have issued separate forecasts pointing to a deep cyclical bottom that may not be reached until late 2026. These predictions emerge as the market struggles with exhaustion and sideways trading patterns.
Doctor Profit, an analyst who maintains short positions entered at $120,000 and $80,500, reported on June 1 and 2, 2026, that the market is entering a “Stage 5” capitulation phase.
He expects Bitcoin to find its next cyclical bottom between $40,000 and $50,000, with the bulk of this decline potentially unfolding between September and October of 2026. He warned that the market is not ready for recovery and that chasing new buys at current levels carries substantial risk.
According to Doctor Profit, the true capitulation will trigger if the price falls below the critical $60,000 support level. Potential catalysts for this plunge include selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs), the unexpected collapse of a major financial institution, or a “black swan” event. This outlook comes at a time when Bitcoin targets $70,000 support while facing significant ETF outflows that dampen bullish sentiment.
Analysts identify $40,000 as a primary bearish target
Analyst Tony joined the bearish chorus, stating his chart analysis suggests a cycle bottom could land below $40,000. He reported on June 3, 2026, that declines toward $50,000 might occur as early as July, with a new low likely being set during the summer months.
Tony noted that Bitcoin has already broken its ascending channel and is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, which he interprets as a clear bearish signal.
Tony also outlined a risk of a “fake breakout” above $85,000 to trap retail traders before a final move to new lows. This technical perspective aligns with why many participants are monitoring why Bitcoin traders care about the 200-day moving average as a decisive trend indicator.
If this moving average fails to provide support, many believe the path to $40,000 becomes the path of least resistance.
Crypto Patel, another analyst who accurately forecasted a 19% crash from $82,800 to $68,000, maintains a psychological target of $40,000. In reports from June 5, 2026, he identified $59,800 as the “break of structure” (BOS) level that would likely trigger a plunge to $50,000 later this year.
He emphasized that only a high-volume close above $82,800 would be enough to flip the current market structure back to a bullish bias.
Double breakdown signals a brutal bear market phase
The sentiment is echoed by Xanrox, who reported on June 6, 2026, that Bitcoin has entered one of its most “brutal” bear market phases. He highlighted a “double breakdown” where the price fell below both a descending and an ascending channel simultaneously.
Xanrox advised investors to hold off on buying, as he expects a drop to $48,000 with a strong possibility of crashing to the $40,000 to $30,000 range.
Xanrox does not believe the current support at approximately $60,000 will be sufficient to halt the downward momentum. His analysis suggests the crash is just starting, rather than nearing its conclusion. This cautious stance mirrors the general market atmosphere, where Bitcoin signals indicate shifting market structure and many are bracing for a prolonged period of volatility before any breakout potential emerges.
Beyond these specific names, wider technical analysis circulating on social media points to a historical “bear flag” pattern. One report noted that the last time Bitcoin was rejected from the top of this flag, it dropped nearly 40% in just over three weeks. A similar 40% correction from recent highs would effectively plunge the price back to just above the $40,000 level.
Future outlook for a cyclical market bottom
While the various analysts differ slightly on the exact timing, the consensus among these bearish forecasters centers on the $40,000 zone as a final destination. They view this level not just as a price point, but as a necessary reset to clear out speculative positions and “weak hands.” This flush-out is often cited as a prerequisite for the next sustainable bull cycle to begin.
For now, the market remains in a state of “sideways frustration,” as Doctor Profit described it. Traders are closely watching the $60,000 and $59,800 levels for signs of a definitive break. Until such a move occurs, or until Bitcoin reclaims its prior highs, the community remains divided on whether the market can find a local bottom or if the move toward $40,000 is inevitable.