After enduring a significant 28% decline this year, the prolonged period of Bitcoin panic selling appears to be drawing to a close. Market analysts are pointing to a confluence of factors, including the cryptocurrency’s unexpected resilience amidst escalating geopolitical tensions and a notable reversal in U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows.
This suggests that the “marginal seller,” those liquidating holdings even at a loss, may finally be exhausted.
Signs of seller exhaustion emerge
As of July 13, 2026, Bitcoin’s price held steady around the $62,000 mark over the weekend, an unusual display of stability that signals a potential shift in investor behavior. This contrasts sharply with earlier in the year when similar global events triggered further price slides. The current market dynamics hint at a stabilization that could pave the way for a more consistent price floor.
One of the clearest indicators of this potential market shift was Bitcoin’s steadfastness in the face of fresh U.S.-Iran hostilities. While past escalations in March and April saw the cryptocurrency’s value drop alongside rising crude oil prices, this time it barely reacted.
Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, observed this resilience. He noted in an email that Bitcoin remained above $62,000 through U.S. airstrikes and a Hormuz closure, suggesting that “the weak hands look gone.” This implies that investors prone to selling off their assets during periods of uncertainty have largely exited the market.
ETF flows turn positive
Another compelling sign comes from the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have experienced a significant turnaround. Last week, these funds collectively attracted a net $197.40 million in investor capital, marking the first net inflows after a challenging eight-week streak of outflows.
Jasper De Maere reiterated the significance of this development. He stated that the “eight-week ETF outflow streak broke,” while adding a note of caution that it’s “one turn, not a trend.” Still, the analyst sees this as compelling evidence that the marginal seller is indeed “drying up,” reducing the immediate selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Dessislava Ianeva, an analyst at Nexo, echoed this sentiment, confirming that “ETF flows confirm it from another angle.” She pointed out that while recent days saw a mix of inflows and outflows, the net result was slightly positive. This gradual shift in sentiment among institutional investors could provide crucial support for Bitcoin’s price in the coming weeks.
Drastic drop in spot selling pressure
Beyond ETF activity, on-chain data offers further evidence of cooling selling pressure. According to Glassnode data, the net selling of Bitcoin in the spot market has declined dramatically. June’s daily average saw nearly 2,000 BTC being sold off.
However, this trend reversed sharply in July, with net selling plummeting to a mere 53 BTC per day. Dessislava Ianeva highlighted that this makes July the calmest month for spot selling in 2026, with the exception of April. The reduction in available Bitcoin for sale at current prices naturally creates less downward pressure on its value.
Marginal seller exits as profit margins disappear
The concept of the “marginal seller” is central to understanding the current market dynamics. These are investors who are willing to sell their assets even as prices decline, often leading to cascading price drops. When their profit margins vanish, or they face significant losses, their incentive to sell diminishes, eventually leading to their exit from the market.
Data on realized profit and loss ratios supports this narrative. Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio dropped to -0.35 on July 4, 2026, hitting its lowest point in 43 months. Historically, such low levels have often coincided with major market bottoms, as seen in 2015, 2019, and December 2022.
This suggests that many holders who bought at higher prices are now reluctant to sell into further losses.
Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are held at a loss by investors, compared to 9.22 million BTC held in profit. This disparity indicates a significant portion of the circulating supply is “underwater.”
This condition further reinforces the idea that those who bought at higher prices are unlikely to sell, thus reducing potential supply hitting the market. For additional context on how market structure impacts price, consider recent trends in Bitcoin price analysis and key resistance levels.
Futures versus spot: a cautious recovery
While signs of seller exhaustion are encouraging, some analysts are urging caution. Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s chief market analyst, noted that Bitcoin’s recent price recovery from its year’s low of $57,700 earlier in July has been predominantly driven by derivatives traders. This means speculative futures trading is playing a larger role than robust spot market demand.
Kuptsikevich explained that “demand for Bitcoin is recovering rapidly, though the growth is currently being driven mainly by retail traders in the speculative futures market.” He also pointed out that “the situation in the spot market remains less positive.” This distinction is critical, as a recovery heavily reliant on futures can be more volatile and less sustainable than one anchored in strong spot buying.
Without a significant return of buy-side liquidity in the spot market, Bitcoin prices could remain in a sideways trend for several months. This scenario would involve the market consolidating rather than experiencing a rapid upward trajectory. Such a period would allow for a more organic re-accumulation phase before a sustained rally.
Macroeconomic headwinds and future outlook
The broader macroeconomic landscape also introduces elements of uncertainty for Bitcoin’s trajectory. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at the 3.50%–3.75% target range at its June meeting, a level maintained since early 2026. However, upcoming economic data could shift this stance.
Markets currently assign about a 70% chance of the Fed holding rates again at its July 28-29 meeting. But with key data like the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June set for release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Congressional testimony due this week, the market could see renewed volatility.
These events often influence interest-rate decisions and the overall appetite for risk, directly impacting cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin has seen a challenging year, declining by 27.12% year-to-date as of July 12, 2026. It began January above $93,000, but after peaking at $126,000 in October 2025, it spent the first half of 2026 grinding down to a 21-month low near $58,000 in late June.
Macro warning signs emerge as crypto liquidations rise and treasury yields climb, adding another layer of complexity. However, if the current trend of seller exhaustion continues, it could provide a necessary foundation for future growth, regardless of short-term macroeconomic fluctuations.
Even with this year’s difficulties, Bitcoin’s price today, at approximately $62,578, remains significantly higher than its $9,279 valuation on July 13, 2020, highlighting its long-term growth trajectory and demonstrating how Bitcoin exchange supply maintains multi-year lows, reflecting evolving investor sentiment.