Grayscale Research released a new report on June 9, 2026, finding that Bitcoin is currently undervalued based on on-chain metrics, though prices have not reached the extreme lows seen in previous cycles.
The digital asset is currently trading near $60,000, positioned below its long-term average after losing more than 8% of its value over the last week. Despite this slide, researchers suggest the current environment represents a strategic buying opportunity for those with long-term investment horizons.
The firm arrived at this valuation by using a composite indicator that compiles data from several popular metrics. These include Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Price to Cumulative Value Coins Destroyed (CVDD), and Market Cap to Thermo Cap.
While these tools signal that Bitcoin is “cheap,” the report notes that a new cycle low was recently established slightly under $60,000. In comparison, the previous cycle floor sat just above $60,000 on February 6, 2026.
Analysts at Grayscale Research believe this bear market may be shallower than those triggered by events like the FTX collapse in 2022. They attribute this relative stability to a more muted preceding bull market and significant improvements in market structure.
Factors such as the growth of exchange-traded products (ETPs) and wealth platform deployment have allowed Bitcoin signals to indicate shifting market structure, which may prevent the violent price collapses seen in the past.
On-chain metrics identify undervalued Bitcoin price levels
Grayscale’s report explicitly states that while current prices are attractive, they do not mirror the “fire sale” conditions of historical market bottoms. “On-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is undervalued, but not as cheap as previous cycle lows,” the research team noted. They recommend that investors consider dollar-cost averaging to manage volatility while the market searches for a definitive floor near the current $60,000 support level.
The technical landscape shows a series of hurdles that Bitcoin must clear to regain upward momentum. The report identifies immediate resistance between $65,000 and $66,269. A more significant barrier for the asset currently sits in the range between $67,000 and $77,000. These levels are critical for traders who prioritise the 200-day moving average when determining the strength of the prevailing trend.
If the psychological support at $60,000 fails to hold in the coming weeks, the downside risk could increase. According to Grayscale’s data, the next meaningful area of support is located between $53,000 and $55,000. This range could become the primary target for buyers if broader market sentiment continues to sour or if liquidations accelerate among leveraged holders.
Regulatory catalysts and the impact of the CLARITY Act
Confirming a true market bottom likely requires more than just technical indicators; it requires regulatory and structural progress. Grayscale identified the progression of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate as a primary short-term catalyst. Legislative clarity would likely provide the necessary confidence for institutional players to increase their allocations.
And the stabilization of balance sheets among leveraged Bitcoin holders remains a prerequisite for a sustained recovery.
The increased adoption of Bitcoin by institutional entities has fundamentally changed how the market reacts to stress. The availability of ETPs and institutional-grade custody means a broader variety of investors can now access the asset class. This maturation is one reason why the current drawdown is viewed as less severe than historical crashes.
It reflects a trend where practitioners analyze Bitcoin price movements near $77,000 as a significant resistance ceiling rather than a guaranteed peak.
Grayscale remains optimistic about the future, suggesting that market structure improvements are providing a cushion that didn’t exist in 2018 or 2022. The report concludes that current price action is a maturation process. For investors with a long-term horizon, the “undervalued” status of Bitcoin today remains a key talking point, even as the asset faces a difficult road through significant overhead resistance levels.