Bitcoin has entered the initial stages of a new bull market, according to a recent analysis by crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant. Head of Research Julio Moreno and other analysts believe a significant 24% rally pushed key on-chain and demand indicators firmly into bullish territory.
However, a decisive weekly close above the 365-day moving average, currently hovering around $83,000, is crucial for officially confirming this market shift.
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin bull market indicators
This assessment, released on August 25, 2026, comes as Bitcoin climbed above the $80,000 mark, trading at approximately $79,000 at the time of the report. The recent surge has ignited optimism across the cryptocurrency sector, but it also introduces short-term concerns about market overheating and profit-taking activity from whales.
The core of CryptoQuant’s optimistic outlook rests on its proprietary “Bull Score” index, a metric combining various measures of market demand, investor profitability, network activity, and liquidity. This index saw a dramatic jump from 30 to 80 points within just one week, marking its highest level since October 2025.
Eight out of the index’s ten underlying indicators are now flashing bullish signals, pointing to a significant change in market sentiment and dynamics. This includes an acceleration in spot demand, with both spot and futures demand growing in tandem for the first time since early October 2025, buoyed by growing institutional demand.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, emphasized this shift. “Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin. Basically all metrics are pointing to the initial phase of a new bull market,” Moreno stated, though he added a caveat. He stressed that Bitcoin’s price “still has to cross above its 365-day MA” to fully solidify this new market phase.
Navigating the $83,000 “final boss” resistance
Despite the strong bullish signals, the path forward isn’t without its hurdles. The 365-day moving average at $83,000 stands as a critical resistance point, which Moreno refers to as Bitcoin’s “final boss.” Breaking this level on a weekly closing basis is essential for sustained upward momentum.
Market strategist Joel Kruger of LMAX Group echoed this sentiment, identifying Bitcoin’s May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next important level. A clear breach above this point would reinforce the idea that a meaningful cycle low is now established, shifting focus towards a potential move through $100,000.
Should Bitcoin fail to maintain its upward trajectory and pull back, analysts suggest $75,000 could serve as a support level. However, a decisive break above $83,000 could propel the cryptocurrency towards $90,000, setting the stage for further gains beyond that.
Warning signs amid overheating and liquidations
The rapid rally has also triggered some short-term overheating warnings. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, for example, soared to 81 points, its yearly high, indicating an “extreme greed” zone. This contrasts sharply with its “fear” zone reading just one month prior and a “neutral” 41 points last week. The BitcoinSystem On-Chain Fear & Greed Index currently reads 74, also indicating “greed.”
Trader profitability metrics also show signs of exuberance. Traders’ unrealized profit margins have climbed to 20.5%, reaching their highest point since June 2025. This situation mirrors early May, when Bitcoin fell about 30% after unrealized profits hit 19% near the $82,000 mark, suggesting warnings of a premature rally.
Whale activity further highlights potential profit-taking pressures. Short-term holder whales realized approximately $1.2 billion in profits between August 20 and August 22. A record $614 million in profits was realized on August 20 alone, when Bitcoin traded around $78,000 to $79,000.
Overall, leveraged positions saw $424.5 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours. Long positions accounted for $334.2 million of this total, significantly outweighing the $90.3 million from short positions. These recent market liquidations, coupled with 53,000 BTC in exchange deposits, indicate increased risks of a market pullback.
Despite these warnings, the overall market sentiment, driven by CryptoQuant’s Bull Score, suggests a foundational shift. The challenge for Bitcoin now lies in overcoming the immediate resistance levels and managing the expected profit-taking without losing its newfound bullish momentum. Market participants will be closely watching for that crucial weekly close above $83,000.