Asset manager 21Shares has officially revised several of its 2026 cryptocurrency market forecasts, acknowledging that while institutional adoption remains a primary driver, certain price and liquidity targets have run into “cyclical realities.” The “State of Crypto 2026: Mid-Year Update” report, published on June 24, 2026, audits ten core industry predictions the firm originally established in December 2025.
In its latest assessment, the global Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) leader noted that while infrastructure has matured faster than prices, a “nuanced market picture” has developed. This has seen some developments land ahead of schedule, while others face delays triggered by ETF outflows and geopolitical tensions. Despite these adjustments, 21Shares Head of Research Eliezer Ndinga noted that shifting investor sentiment and structural maturity have kept current drawdowns milder than previous cycles.
Bitcoin price targets adjusted to cyclical patterns
The report’s primary revision concerns Bitcoin (BTC), which the firm now projects will reach a base-case range of $100,000 to $110,000 by the end of 2026. A bull-case scenario of $150,000 to $180,000 remains possible, though the asset is currently trading around $65,000. This follows a sharp correction after Bitcoin reached an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025.
Current price action suggests Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle remains intact, tracking historical post-halving rhythms. Bitcoin fell to an intra-day low of $59,102 on Wednesday, June 23, but analysts highlighted that it has consistently stayed above its aggregate investor cost basis of $54,000. A structural support level is currently identified at $60,000, aligning with the 200-week moving average.
Matt Mena, a strategist at 21Shares, outlined a thesis where the path to $100,000 opens up if Bitcoin can successfully break through the $70,000 resistance level. He indicated this could potentially happen before the end of the third quarter of 2026. This outlook aligns with recent market resistance analysis suggesting that overcoming these barriers is critical for sustained momentum.
Prediction markets and tokenization outperform initial targets
While some forecasts were trimmed, prediction markets have emerged as a significant growth sector. 21Shares originally forecast $100 billion in annual traded volume for the industry by 2026. However, actual volume through the end of May 2026 already reached $57.5 billion—more than ten times the volume recorded during the same period last year. The firm has now revised its 2026 expectation, stating the sector is actively pacing to challenge the $200 billion mark.
The tokenization of assets on public blockchains has also shown measurable progress, reaching a total of $31 billion. This figure includes $15 billion specifically in tokenized US Treasuries. These figures come as 21Shares notes that underlying industry infrastructure, including stablecoin regulation and tokenization, has continued to mature despite weaker overall asset prices.
Stablecoin supply currently sits near $314 billion, with the total supply above $320 billion. This remains well below the firm’s original $1 trillion forecast for 2026. Consequently, 21Shares has adjusted its year-end expectation for the stablecoin market cap to a more realistic range of between $400 billion and $600 billion.
Institutional ETP holdings show resilience amid capital shifts
The “mid-year update” highlights the “profound resilience of institutional capital,” according to Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares. Global crypto ETP Assets Under Management (AUM) currently stand at $140 billion, representing a 15% year-to-date decrease largely due to price shifts. However, net underlying Bitcoin holdings in these products remain at 1.25 million coins, within 8% of all-time highs.
This resilience persists despite recently reported US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows of approximately $4 billion. These movements flipped year-to-date flows to a negative $1.9 billion, though net inflows since the 2024 launch still total roughly $53 billion. 21Shares analysts noted that many investors appear to be holding through volatility or quietly building strategic positions.
The report also pointed toward growing consolidation within the industry. It noted that public companies holding crypto on their balance sheets are diverging, with smaller players often trading below the value of their digital holdings. A similar trend is appearing in Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem, where dominant rollups are capturing the majority of market share while smaller networks struggle to attract liquidity.
DeFi security concerns and sector performance
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) has faced significant headwinds, with the Total Value Locked (TVL) currently at $140 billion—far below the original $300 billion forecast. The report attributes part of this gap to major exploits, noting more than $840 million has been lost across over 50 exploits in 2026 alone. These security failures have contributed to what the firm describes as slower-than-expected enterprise adoption.
Despite these hurdles, the report maintains a focus on structural maturation. Ophelia Snyder, former 21Shares co-founder now at FalconX, observed that the investor base is more connected to the broader financial system than in previous years. This increased connectivity means macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical developments now exert a larger impact on crypto pricing, helping to explain the nuanced market environment seen in the first half of 2026.