Zurich-based asset management firm 21Shares has reaffirmed its $100,000 year-end price target for Bitcoin, despite a recent market shakeout that has seen the asset drop roughly 50% from its all-time high.
In its “Crypto Market Outlook for the First Half of 2026” released on June 24, 2026, the firm noted that the current correction is far milder than the 80% drawdowns seen in previous cycles. This resilience suggests a maturing market backed by stronger capital flows and institutional interest.
Institutional assets remain resilient despite price volatility
The report comes as Bitcoin trades at approximately $62,300, significantly below the record of $126,000 reached in October 2025. However, 21Shares analysts argue that Bitcoin has avoided the clear capitulation phase typical of past bear markets.
One key metric supporting this is that the price has not fallen to the average investor cost basis of $54,000. So long as the market stays above this level, the structural integrity of the current bull cycle remains largely intact according to their Bitcoin price analysis for the remainder of 2026.
A primary driver for the firm’s optimism is the stability of Global Crypto Exchange Traded Products (ETPs). As of May 2026, these products held $140 billion in assets under management (AUM).
Key details
While this reflects a 15% decline year-to-date in dollar terms, the actual amount of Bitcoin held in these ETPs remains high at 1.25 million BTC. This figure is only about 8% below previous peak levels, suggesting institutional holders are keeping their positions rather than selling en masse.
Furthermore, the supply of stablecoins has risen above $320 billion. This indicates that many investors are not exiting the crypto ecosystem entirely; instead, they are holding cash-like digital assets and waiting for a fresh entry point. This “sidelined capital” provides a potential catalyst for a rapid recovery if market sentiment shifts back toward risk-on assets.
Such a shift often happens as macro warning signs and liquidity trends normalize across global markets.
Critical technical support and moving average floors
The 21Shares report identifies $60,000 as a vital structural support level. This price point aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has historically served as a reliable floor during major corrections. The firm’s confidence in the long-term trend is high, standing at 70%.
On-chain data corroborates this sentiment, as long-term holder balances are currently near all-time highs, having increased by roughly $15 billion since the start of the year.
For the immediate short-term, 21Shares maintains a more cautious neutral outlook with a 61% confidence level.
The report outlines several clear price milestones for the tokens:
- If Bitcoin breaks above $65,500, it could extend to $66,300.
- Stability at $65,500 opens a path toward $71,100 and eventually $100,000.
- Failure to break $65,500 may result in a fall back to $60,500.
- A failure to stabilize at $65,500 could lead to a retreat to $58,000.
- An inability to recover to $71,100 would likely trigger a retest of the $54,000 cost basis.
Tokenized assets and the path to six figures
Expanding beyond simple price action, the report highlights the growth of tokenized assets on public blockchains, which have now reached $31 billion. Of this total, $15 billion is comprised of tokenized U.S. Treasury securities. This integration with traditional financial products suggests Bitcoin is operating within an increasingly sophisticated ecosystem.
While DeFi has lagged behind—with a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $140 billion against a $300 billion forecast—the core Bitcoin network continues to follow historical post-halving patterns.
Looking ahead, 21Shares maintains $100,000 as its base case for the end of the year. In a more aggressive bull case, they suggest Bitcoin could surge between $150,000 and $180,000 if macro tailwinds align. Conversely, their bear case sees the asset stagnating between $60,000 and $75,000.
With Bitcoin dominance at 56.23% and a neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 54.8, the market appears balanced, waiting for the next major momentum driver to dictate the second half of 2026.