Bitcoin’s share of supply held in profit dropped to approximately 61% on May 25, 2026, as recent price volatility pushes market metrics below historic bull thresholds. This decline suggests a crucial shift in market dynamics, with a growing number of investors now holding unrealized losses or nearing their cost basis while the price struggles to hold the $77,000 level.
According to analysis from Darkfost, a verified CryptoQuant author, this 61% figure is notably low compared to typical bull cycles. Historically, the percentage of supply in profit has stayed above 75% during expansion phases. The current dip reflects weakening confidence and a transition into a phase of uncertainty for market participants.
The “supply in profit” indicator calculates the share of circulating Bitcoin whose last movement occurred at a price lower than the current market value. When this metric falls, it often signals increased selling pressure. Data shows that earlier this year, on February 17, profitability had already declined to 55%, leaving approximately 10 million BTC held at a loss.
Shifting thresholds in the Bitcoin price cycle
Recent months have seen these profitability levels fluctuate significantly. On February 24, 2026, Newhedge’s gauge showed just 51.78% of coins in profit when Bitcoin was trading at $63,275. During that same period, Bitcoin price analysis from other experts flagged even more severe readings, with some metrics slumping to 44.2% while the price held at $68,000.
These figures stand in stark contrast to the market peak in March 2024. When Bitcoin reached its all-time high above $73,000, roughly 99% of the circulating supply was in a profitable state. Now, as the price hovers near $77,000, the inability to maintain higher profitability levels suggests that many current holders entered at much higher valuations than in previous years.
Darkfost highlighted that for investors to maintain a “hold” bias, the market needs to sustain a sufficient level of unrealized profits. Conversely, when the supply in profit exceeds 95%, the market often becomes overheated. This state typically triggers short-term corrections, as saw occurring multiple times during the current cycle’s volatility.
Eighty thousand dollars remains a formidable resistance
A primary hurdle for renewed price growth is the $80,000 psychological and technical barrier. This level represents the cost basis for many short-term holders who have entered the market since October of last year. Darkfost noted that this range has acted as major resistance, placing short-term investors under consistent pressure.
As the market attempts to move higher, these participants often look to exit their positions to minimize losses rather than holding through further volatility. This behavior contributes to the Bitcoin exchange supply staying at multi-year lows as long-term sentiment remains cautious. If the $80,000 resistance holds, selling activity from these short-term holders is expected to persist.
While the broader market experiences stress, veteran investors appear to be standing firm. As of May 21, 2026, long-term holders — those who haven’t moved their coins in at least 155 days — controlled 14.85 million BTC. This represents about 74.3% of the total circulating supply, a 17% increase over the 12.66 million BTC peak recorded in October 2020.
Historical precedents for market bottoms and peaks
The move toward 61% profitability puts Bitcoin in a transitional zone. Historically, bear market bottoms tend to form when the share of supply in profit falls below the 50% threshold. During the November 2022 market bottom, for instance, the metric declined to between 53% and 55%.
When Bitcoin previously dropped below the $60,000 price level this year, only 51.1% of the supply remained in profit. This level acted as a rough balance between profits and losses for the entire network. Ongoing crypto market liquidation events have continued to test these support zones during recent pullbacks from the $80,000 range.
Looking ahead, the market typically requires the supply in profit to move back toward 85% or 90% for a strong bull phase to emerge. Until then, the current environment remains characterized by caution. Investors are watching for a sustained break above short-term holder cost bases to determine if the next price trajectory will trend toward new highs or deeper support tests.