Bitcoin $400,000 by 2030 may sound aggressive with BTC trading around $77,000, but Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is sticking with the forecast. Speaking to CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Thursday, Armstrong called the target a “reasonable target” and argued that Bitcoin may already have moved past the worst part of its current downturn.
His case rests partly on a familiar rhythm in Bitcoin markets: periods of rapid gains, speculative excitement and then a roughly year-long decline. Armstrong believes that cycle has now reached its low point.
“We’ve actually just come across the one-year mark for this down period,” he said. More pointedly, Armstrong added, “I personally believe that the bottom is in on Bitcoin in this most recent cycle.”
That view puts the current price action in a very different frame. Rather than seeing Bitcoin’s slide from its highs as the beginning of a longer malaise, Armstrong sees the market entering a stretch that could benefit from the next halving, currently expected in about 18 months.
“I think the next year or two is going to be good for Bitcoin,” he said.
Reaching Bitcoin $400,000 by 2030 would require BTC to rise roughly fivefold from current levels in a little more than three years. It is a striking projection, especially considering the pressure already felt across the crypto industry. Coinbase cut 14% of its workforce during the downturn, while weaker trading activity contributed to a miss on second-quarter earnings.
Why Bitcoin $400,000 Still Fits Armstrong’s Cycle Theory
Armstrong’s bullish outlook is not simply a bet on momentum. He is also looking toward Bitcoin’s halving schedule, an event that reduces the reward paid to miners for adding new blocks to the network.
Historically, Bitcoin has often seen stronger market activity around these supply-cutting events, although past cycles are not guarantees of what comes next. For Armstrong, the timing is enough to make the next couple of years look considerably more promising than the recent stretch.
His confidence is even higher when the conversation shifts from Bitcoin to U.S. regulation.
The Senate is scheduled to vote on the Clarity Act on September 15, and Armstrong said he expects it to pass. He described the bill as being “ready to get a yes vote” based on conversations with people involved, while saying that law enforcement groups, banks and crypto companies are broadly supportive.
The remaining dispute centers on ethics rules involving crypto ventures linked to the president’s family. The White House has proposed what Armstrong called an “unprecedented” provision for a sitting president, while Democrats are pushing for divestiture. Negotiations are still underway.
Prediction markets are considerably less convinced. Users on Myriad, a platform owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, currently assign only a 17% probability to the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026.
Armstrong, however, argues that outright passage may not be the only route to clearer rules. The SEC and CFTC, he said, are already prepared to introduce rulemaking and innovation exemptions under their existing authority. From his perspective, regulatory clarity could arrive within a month either way.
He pointed to last year’s Genius Act as evidence of how quickly crypto infrastructure can respond once Washington removes uncertainty. Armstrong said more than 150 large companies incorporated stablecoins within three months of that legislation passing.
The same logic is behind Coinbase’s broader ambitions. Armstrong expects clearer rules to support products such as tokenized equities and perpetual futures for U.S. customers, areas where the exchange has already been laying the groundwork.
In June, Coinbase outlined plans for tokenized stock trading with automatic dividend payments. Armstrong contrasted the offering with competitors that provide what he characterized as derivatives or IOUs. In May, Coinbase also became the first U.S. exchange approved to offer crypto perpetual futures.
The strategy points to something larger than a simple crypto exchange. Coinbase is increasingly positioning itself as a single destination for trading across traditional and digital markets — what executives have dubbed the “everything exchange.”
That makes Armstrong’s Bitcoin $400,000 prediction part of a broader thesis. He is not only betting on another Bitcoin cycle. He is betting that the infrastructure surrounding digital assets will become more integrated with mainstream finance at the same time.
For now, though, the gap between roughly $77,000 and $400,000 remains enormous. Armstrong’s forecast depends on the familiar Bitcoin cycle continuing, the next halving reinforcing demand and U.S. regulation becoming clearer.
Whether those pieces line up is still an open question. But for Coinbase’s CEO, the important part of the story is that the clock may already be moving in Bitcoin’s favor.