South Korean merchants could save as much as 5.15 trillion won — roughly $3.8 billion — a year if stablecoins take a meaningful share of card payments, according to a new analysis by the National Assembly Budget Office.
The estimate comes with a catch. The same stablecoins that could make payments cheaper could also reshape the role banks play in the economy, while creating new risks if large numbers of users rush to redeem their tokens at once.
The parliamentary budget office modeled different scenarios based on how much card spending shifts to stablecoin payments and how much those payment networks charge. Under the most conservative assumption, merchants would save about 370 billion won ($275 million) annually.
At the other end of the range, the potential savings climb to 5.15 trillion won. The gap reflects just how much the economics could change depending on adoption and fee levels.
Stablecoins are designed to maintain a stable value against an asset such as a national currency. In South Korea, a won-backed version could give businesses a domestic alternative to a market where dollar-denominated tokens currently dominate.
According to the budget office, dollar-linked stablecoins represented 98.8% of the global stablecoin market in July, which stood at $312.3 billion.
Stablecoins have a banking problem hiding in plain sight
The potential savings are only half the story. The budget office warned that widespread use of stablecoins could pull money away from traditional bank deposits, reducing the funds banks rely on to lend and weakening their role as credit intermediaries.
There is also a more immediate stress scenario. If a large number of holders tried to redeem their stablecoins simultaneously, issuers could be forced to sell reserve assets quickly. That could put pressure on the token’s peg and undermine confidence in the system.
The office called for stronger safeguards, including reserve requirements, tighter limits on rewards offered by stablecoins and closer supervision of tokens that could threaten financial stability.
Those rules are still being worked out. South Korea’s first major law aimed at protecting crypto investors took effect in July 2024, introducing requirements around customer assets and unfair trading practices.
But the bigger argument is about who gets to issue a stablecoin in the first place.
Negotiations have exposed a divide between South Korea’s central bank and its financial regulator. The Bank of Korea has favored a model in which issuers are controlled by banks with at least 51% ownership, while the Financial Services Commission has warned that overly restrictive rules could slow innovation.
Stablecoins could also become part of a much larger financial infrastructure. The Financial Services Commission says South Korea plans to begin expanding tokenized securities in February 2027, with a later phase expected to connect blockchain-based securities markets with stablecoin payment systems.
That prospect makes the debate less about replacing credit cards and more about where money itself moves.
South Korean policymakers are also watching the currency implications. A Bank of Korea study published earlier this month found that direct trading between local currencies and dollar-backed stablecoins on Binance can put downward pressure on local currencies.
For now, the budget office says the links between dollar stablecoins traded in South Korea and markets such as bitcoin, foreign exchange, equities and interest rates remain limited.
But those connections may not stay limited forever. The office warned that they could strengthen during periods of geopolitical stress or broad-based dollar strength, adding another reason regulators are approaching stablecoin adoption cautiously.