Wall Street analysts have released a wide range of price targets for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) following the expiration of the post-IPO quiet period on July 7, 2026. Nineteen analysts initiated coverage after the company’s recent inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, with price projections spanning from a low of $131 to a Street-high of $800.
The gap in valuations highlights a divergence in how experts view the long-term potential of the company’s Starship and Starlink programs. The average 12-month price target currently stands at $236, roughly 56% above the current share price of $151. However, the median target sits at $225.
Raymond James sets Street-high SpaceX target at $800
This flurry of research follows the SpaceX (SPCX) initial public offering on June 12, the largest in U.S. history, which raised $75 billion at a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion.
While the stock reached an intraday high of $225.64 shortly after its debut, it has since retraced. As of July 8, 2026, SPCX is trading at $157.66 with a total market capitalization of $1.97 trillion.
This volatility comes as 23 underwriting banks released their first formal ratings, providing the market with a broader set of data points on the aerospace giant’s financial trajectory and its integrated AI-driven business interests.
Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale leads the bullish contingent with a “Strong Buy” rating and a price target of $800. Gesuale argues that SpaceX is currently “undervalued,” suggesting that the target implies a 430% upside from current levels. He compared the company to foundational infrastructure of the past, including the railroads and the internet.
The core of Gesuale’s thesis rests on two primary drivers: the commercial maturity of the Starship platform and the company’s developments in artificial intelligence. SpaceX has integrated the xAI business into its operations, which analysts view as a critical component of its future value. This optimistic outlook contrasts with the macro warning signs sometimes seen in other high-growth sectors, where capital-intensive projects face higher scrutiny.
Other major banks have also issued positive outlooks. Citigroup’s John Godyn rated the stock a buy at $200, describing it as a step toward a much higher long-term target of $900. If achieved, a $900 share price would value SpaceX near $12 trillion. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu and J.P.
Morgan’s Doug Anmuth issued buy-equivalent ratings at $255 and $225, respectively. These targets acknowledge the scale of Starlink, which reached 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries by March 31, 2026.
MoffettNathanson stands as sole skeptic with Street-low target
Not every analyst shares the trillion-dollar enthusiasm for the company’s orbital ambitions. Julie Zhu of MoffettNathanson issued a “Neutral” rating with a price target of $131, representing an 18% downside. Zhu’s team called SpaceX’s internal estimate of a $30 trillion addressable market “absurd” and stated that no “credible financial model” currently supports the company’s $2 trillion market valuation.
The skepticism from the firm centers on the high costs associated with unproven initiatives. MoffettNathanson specifically questioned CEO Elon Musk’s plans to deploy 100 gigawatts of orbital compute by 2029. In 2025, SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.94 billion, while spending $12.7 billion in capital expenditures for xAI.
While Starlink is generating profit—pulling in $4.4 billion in operating profit on $11.4 billion in revenue last year—the firm argues that investors are currently pricing the stock as the sell side intensifies on speculative “options” for businesses that do not yet exist.
Regulatory scrutiny also remains a primary long-term concern for the bears. MoffettNathanson flagged SpaceX’s launch dominance as a risk that could draw attention from agencies like the FAA and FCC. Additionally, the company’s S-1 filing detailed over 70 pages of risks, including execution challenges for Starship, a $41.3 billion accumulated deficit, and heavy customer concentration among entities like NASA, the Department of Defense, and Anthropic.
Starship test flights remain a critical catalyst for valuation
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has established a more moderate base case price target of $300. His model includes a wide range of potential outcomes, spanning from a $600 bull case to a $75 bear case. This massive spread reflects the uncertainty surrounding high-stakes engineering milestones that have yet to be fully realized at scale.
The inclusion of SPCX in the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, July 7, provided a new milestone for the company’s public life. This move followed heavy pre-IPO demand, including a $5 billion order from BlackRock prior to the company’s $2 trillion debut last month.
Despite this institutional interest, the stock has trended downward recently, searching for a stable floor after its initial $150 opening price on June 12 and the $135 fixed IPO offer price.
The immediate future for SpaceX shares may hinge on technical milestones rather than just financial reports. Starship’s next test flight is scheduled for later this month. Analysts believe the outcome of this test could sway the market toward either the $800 bullish targets or the $131 bearish projections.
As the company continues to manage its 22,000 employees and its headquarters in Starbase, Texas, the gap between Wall Street’s highest and lowest expectations remains one of the widest in the technology sector.