The Celestia (TIA) network is facing renewed scrutiny as its supply schedule and reported team token sales intersect with a period of steep price declines. On July 1, 2026, DeFiLlama data points to a planned liquidation of approximately $2.03 million in TIA tokens by the Celestia team across the month of July. This structural pressure, involving roughly $67,000 in daily offloads following an initial $28,000 tranche, has raised questions about the token’s ability to absorb sell-side momentum during a wider market slide.
However, the context of these sales remains complex. While the current reports highlight a $2.03 million figure for July 2026, research indicates these figures may mirror legacy reports dating back to 2024. A more substantiated event in Celestia’s recent history was the July 24, 2025, repurchase of 43.45 million TIA tokens by the Celestia Foundation from Polychain Capital for $62.5 million. That transaction followed criticism over Polychain’s sale of liquid staking rewards, leading to a new rolling unlock schedule for the repurchased assets that concluded in November 2025.
Spot market demand attempts to buffer TIA supply pressure
Despite the bearish outlook of scheduled team sales, on-chain spot market flows suggest some demand may be present to counter the pressure. Total spot purchases have reached $106.68 million, and a netflow of roughly $4.8 million currently tilts the balance toward buyers. This suggests that while the token has posted steep losses over the past day, certain market participants are still accumulating TIA in the spot market.
This accumulation happens as altcoin demand shifts toward new tokens and modular infrastructure projects that offer distinct technical layers. For Celestia, the primary challenge remains its low on-chain fee generation, which stood at roughly $200 daily as of July 2025. Without a significant increase in network utility to drive token demand, the asset remains vulnerable to the persistent structural headwinds created by its ongoing unlock schedule.
Derivatives data shows resilient positioning amid open interest decline
In the perpetual contracts market, the sentiment appears slightly more nuanced. Data from CoinGlass shows that TIA’s Open Interest (OI) fell 2%, representing a $1.16 million withdrawal of capital. This leaves the net OI at $58 million at the start of July. While the drop in OI reflects a reduction in committed capital, it has not yet shifted overall positioning to the short side.
0038%. This reading indicates that the majority of capital in the perpetual market is leaning long, with traders essentially paying to maintain bullish positions. com/dogecoin-price-prediction-on-chain-signals-analysis-2026/”>on-chain signals and funding rates often diverge from spot price action during periods of consolidation.
Because the funding rate is only mildly bullish, analysts suggest the market is not overly crowded, which reduces the immediate risk of a sharp, forced capitulation.
Liquidity heatmap indicates potential for tactical upswings
Technical indicators for TIA show a market in extreme conditions. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 27.77, signalling that the asset is in oversold territory. This is complemented by a liquidity heatmap from CoinGlass, which shows deeper order clusters sitting above the current price. Such clusters often act as magnets for price action, suggesting that TIA could rally toward those levels if the market stabilizes.
However, momentum remains a significant barrier. TIA is currently down double digits on the day and continues to trade below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. Expert analysis from Traders Union notes that without a shift in core fundamentals or fresh news catalysts, any technical bounce from these levels will likely be short-lived. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also remains negative, confirming the bearish short-term momentum.
Supply management and the 2026 tokenomics outlook
The Celestia Foundation has taken active steps in the past to manage its tokenomics, most notably during the v4 “Lotus” upgrade in July 2025. That upgrade lowered the annual inflation rate from 7.2% to 5.0% and introduced mechanisms to lock staking rewards for vesting wallets. Subsequent upgrades, such as the v6 (CIP-41) in November 2025, further reduced inflation to approximately 2.5%, with a terminal target of 1.5%.
Despite these efforts, the shadow of large-scale unlocks continues to affect investor sentiment. A significant unlock in October 2024 results in a near-doubling of the circulating supply at the time, which led to a drawdown of over 90% from the token’s all-time high. 4050 for the remainder of the month.
The ability of the network to generate meaningful fee revenue remains the primary benchmark for its potential decoupling from these bearish supply triggers.