Bitcoin (BTC) holders who have maintained their positions for more than five years have slashed their spending to a 19-month low, according to on-chain data released on June 23, 2024. The 90-day average of Bitcoin spent by these veteran “OG” investors fell to 962 BTC, marking the lowest level recorded since November 2024.
As of June 20, 2026, Bitcoin was trading at $63,335, a slight 0.3% increase over 24 hours.
Veteran investors signal confidence as selling pressure eases
This sharp decline in selling pressure suggests a strategic shift among long-term holders (LTH), who appear to be favoring accumulation over liquidation despite the asset trading near their average purchase costs. Analysts at CryptoQuant noted that the most expensive coins held by this cohort were acquired for roughly $63,200.
This indicates many “strong hands” are opting not to sell even while their holdings sit near their original cost basis.
The retreat by long-term holders follows several significant waves of selling over the last two years. According to analyst Darkfost, the 90-day moving average previously peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024, followed by 3,200 BTC in February 2025 and 2,360 BTC in September 2025.
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Some individual daily sessions during these periods recorded massive outputs exceeding 142,000 BTC, but the current sub-1,000 BTC average suggests the cohort is “keeping a cool head.”
While veterans remain steady, newer market participants are facing increased financial pressure. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Bitcoin’s adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) fell to -0.14 from near zero just a month ago. This shift signifies that the average holder has moved back into unrealized loss territory with prices hovering around $62,500. Adler Jr.
noted that while short-term holder capital has shrunk by 56%, long-term holder capital has barely drawn down.
The lack of movement from older coins often precedes a shift in market cycles. Even as macro warning signs emerge across broader financial markets, the refusal of “OG” holders to capitulate provides a theoretical floor for the current price range. This behavior contrasts with short-term holders, whose realized price sits significantly higher at $71,199.
Halving cycle models project September market bottom
Technical observers are increasingly looking toward historical patterns to predict the end of the current stagnation. Analyst LP highlighted a recurring trend based on previous Bitcoin halving cycles, where the market typically enters a final capitulation phase 826 days after the halving event. For the current cycle, which saw its reward reduction on April 20, 2024, that 826-day marker falls on July 6, 2026.
If historical trends hold, a major low followed by 70 to 110 days of sideways consolidation could place a potential bottoming window in early September. This projection aligns with Bitcoin price analysis from other traders like Titan, who identified untapped downside liquidity near $58,900.
On the quarterly chart, an open “fair value gap” exists between $49,000 and $58,900, which may act as a magnet for price action through the third quarter.
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The current market weakness is further reflected in the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric. Sitting near 0.3 as of June 20, 2024, the CVDD is significantly lower than the readings above 4.0 seen during the market strength of March 2024.
Analysts suggest that if the quarterly low remains untouched through September, it could draw enough attention to that liquidity zone to finalize the market bottom.
Deep dive into Bitcoin realized price cohorts
The divergence in sentiment between various investor groups is best illustrated by their respective realized prices. While the overall market realized price stands at $53,388, the breakdown by holding duration shows a stark reality for those who bought during recent peaks. Long-term holders remain comfortably in the green with a realized price of $49,731, while short-term holders are underwater.
As Bitcoin exchange supply maintains multi-year lows, the lack of selling from the LTH group effectively constrains the liquid supply. This positioning suggests that “strong hands” are waiting for higher valuations before realizing profits. For now, the focus remains on the early July 826-day marker to see if the halving model accurately signals the next phase of the cycle.